Intelligence-led advisory services for organisations navigating complex and emerging risks.

Foresight for radical uncertainty.

ExoRisk Global

We guide future-focused organisations to build the insight, skills, and resilience needed to thrive in an era of unprecedented change.

We enable key decision makers to prepare for the threats most others aren’t ready for – long before conventional frameworks register the signal.

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Why do unpredictable shocks almost always seem obvious in hindsight?

  • The signals were there before the 2008 financial crisis. Before Ukraine. Before COVID. Before Bitcoin. The organisations that acted on them didn't get lucky - they were paying different attention.
  • Most risk frameworks are optimised for what already happened. ExoRisk is optimised for what is already visible but being ignored.
  • We don't replace your risk function. We give it access to intelligence it currently cannot reach.
  • Our advisory network spans Government, Defence, Commerce, Banking, Energy, Law, and Intelligence Services. We bring that network to bear for a select number of clients we engage with.

Examples

Major US Investment Bank:

briefing to 35+ Managing Directors

Big 4 accounting firm

engaged with Government advisory

Central Bank whitepaper recommendations

Radical uncertainty encompasses everything that lies in between the world of unlikely events which can be described with the aid of probability distributions, and the world of the unimaginable.

John Kay & Mervyn King
RADICAL UNCERTAINTY: DECISION-MAKING FOR AN UNKNOWABLE FUTURE

There are also unknown unknowns - the ones we don't know we don't know.

Donald Rumsfeld, U.S. Secretary of Defence.
Unknown risks (risks we don't yet know exist)

The inability to predict outliers implies the inability to predict the course of history.

Nassim Taleb
Black Swan Risks (rare, unpredictable with extreme impact)

If Black Swans leave one feeling helpless, Grey Rhinos teach us that we do have the power to act.

Michele Wucker
Grey Rhino Risks (highly probable, high impact, yet ignored)

Preparing for uncertainty starts with the right conversation.

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